Nationaal Hurricane Center 2pm Statement:
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located by a reconnaissance plane and Cuban radars near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 76.0 West. Irma has been moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h), but the hurricane should resume a
west-northwest motion later today. A turn toward the northwest is
expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma
should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central
Bahamas for the rest of today and Saturday, and be near the Florida
Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to
remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 925 mb (27.31 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...6 to 12 ft
Jupiter Inlet to Cape Sable including the Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft
Ponce Inlet to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 6 ft
Venice to Captiva...3 to 6 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breakingwaves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and these conditions will continue to spread
westward over the central Bahamas later today. Hurricane conditions
are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the
north coast of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in
portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or
early Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida
by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:
Dominican Republic and Haiti...additional 1 to 4 inches.
Turks and Caicos...additional 2 to 4 inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Southern Cuba...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica...1 to 2 inches.
The upper Florida Keys into southeast Florida...10 to 15 inches,
